Bold prediction: What the Senate GOP campaign chair says about winning back the majority

LAS VEGAS Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, the chair of the Senate Republicans’ campaign committee, for the first time is definitively saying his party will recapture control of the chamber in November’s elections.

‘We will win the Senate majority’ the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chair said in an interview with Fox News Digital.

‘Fifty-one is the number that we want to get to. Clearly, there’s an opportunity to get beyond that, but 51 is the number we’ve got to get to,’ Daines added, as he spoke along the sidelines of the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual leadership meeting on Thursday in Las Vegas.

Democrats control the Senate by a razor-thin 51-49 margin, and Republicans are looking at a favorable election map this year with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs.

One of those seats is in West Virginia, a deep red state that former President Trump carried by nearly 40 points in 2020. With moderate Democrat-turned-Independent Sen. Joe Manchin, a former governor, not seeking re-election, flipping the seat is nearly a sure thing for the GOP.

Additionally, in Daines’ home state of Montana and in Ohio, two states Trump comfortably carried four years ago, Republicans are aiming to defeat Democratic Sens. Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown.

Five more Democratic-held seats are up for grabs this year in crucial presidential-election battleground states.

With Democrats trying to protect their fragile Senate majority, former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan of blue-state Maryland’s late entry into the Senate race in February gave them an unexpected headache in a state previously considered safe territory. Hogan left the governor’s office at the beginning of 2023 with very positive approval and favorable ratings.

Minutes after speaking with Fox News, Daines made his pitch to top dollar donors and influential conservative activists in order to remedy the cash disparity between GOP campaigns and those of Democrats.

‘We need your help to close the fundraising gap,’ Daines emphasized as he addressed the Republican Jewish Coalition crowd. ‘We have the right candidates. Let’s get them the resources they need to win.’

In his interview, Daines pointed to the GOP’s fundraising gap and acknowledged, ‘it’s a concern of mine.’

‘There are winnable races right now that we may not be able to bring across the finish line because of lack of resources. We are literally two months away from the most consequential election of my lifetime,’ Daines emphasized. ‘That’s why we’re working very, very hard to make sure we’re ringing that alarm bell to get to donors.’

Democrats have outraised and outspent their Republican counterparts in the 2024 battle for the Senate majority, and looking forward, they have dished out more money for ad reservations for the final two months leading up to Election Day on Nov. 5.

Senate Democrats and outside groups supporting them have made significantly larger post-Labor Day ad reservations in four of the seven key Senate battlegrounds, per AdImpact. In Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Arizona each, Democratic ad reservation spending is at least double that of their respective Republican opponents, presenting a stark obstacle for GOP candidates, some of whom already face name recognition issues and the hurdle of taking on an incumbent. 

Overall, Democrats have an advantage over their Republican Senate foes with nearly $348 million in planned spending in pivotal races across the country ahead of election day, compared to Republicans’ over $255 million. 

The relatively small GOP expenditures in Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Arizona appear to be a result of massive prioritized pro-Republican Senate ad buys in Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Republicans are managing to outspend Democrats in these states, but their opponents have still boasted similarly large planned spending. In Ohio, while Republicans had $81.9 million reserved, Democratic future spending wasn’t far behind at $78.3 million, according to AdImpact. 

Fueling the financial disparity, the surge in Democratic Party enthusiasm and fundraising in the month and a half since Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the party’s 2024 ticket in the White House race against former President Donald Trump.

‘You just saw in the last 48 hours Kamala Harris announce she’s directing $25 million of her presidential campaign dollars down-ballot including $10 million for Senate Democrats,’ Daines spotlighted. ‘There’s not many things Kamala Harris does well but one thing she does well is raise money. So this does have us concerned.’

However, Daines said there is a silver lining when it comes to Harris replacing the 81-year-old Biden in the White House race.

‘What it does is it helps us take the age issue off the table because that was one of the reasons that Biden did so poorly. It was more about his age than anything else,’ Daines said. ‘This now gets us laser focused on policy. This is going to be a policy contrast election….For the first time in decades, we have the results of two different administrations to run against – President Trump’s four years and Kamala Harris’ four years. Two very different administrations – very different outcomes. That contrast, we think will be very helpful for us in the key Senate races.’