Balance of power: Five races that could decide control of the House in November

As the presidential race heats up with less than three months until Election Day, candidates in smaller-scale races across the country are also sprinting to the November finish line.

Those include the 435 races that will decide control of the House of Representatives next year.

‘I feel sort of bullish for Republicans right now,’ veteran GOP strategist Doug Heye told Fox News Digital. ‘This [presidential] race, especially in the swing states, is going to be so close that, to me, mitigates some of the ‘If Trump wins, Republicans keep the House, if Harris wins, Democrats take it back’ – that mitigates it for me to some extent.’

Democratic strategist Joel Rubin, on the other hand, was confident in his party’s redistricting wins and renewed political enthusiasm since Vice President Kamala Harris took over the mantle from President Biden last month.

‘These 35, 40 swing districts, I think about 18 to 20 are Biden wins in red seats. So the map looks promising,’ Rubin said. ‘And the thing that’s distinct now from a month ago, obviously, is Democratic enthusiasm . . . I do think Democrats can take back the House with these kinds of numbers and these kinds of structural gains.’

And with ever-shrinking margins in the House in recent years, it’s likely control of the House will come down to just several key races, five of which Fox News Digital highlighted below:

NY-17

Freshman Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., is running against former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones in the New York suburbs just north of the Big Apple. His district is among several that Biden won in 2020, and Democrats see an opening to win it back.

Both Jones and Lawler have sought to paint each other as radicals, each tying his rival to the most unpopular policy stances in their respective parties. 

Lawler, for his part, has been ranked among the most bipartisan lawmakers in the 118th Congress.

Jones, meanwhile, has reshaped himself closer to the center, going so far as to endorse the primary opponent of a former progressive anti-Israel colleague, Rep. Jamaal Bowman, which earned him ire from that faction of House Democrats.

‘I think that’s a really important one, that’s a potential pickup for Democrats against a moderate, well-regarded Republican – but in a district that had been blue, and there are . . . seats that Democrats lost in New York that we should not have lost two years ago – and that was the difference between minority and the majority,’ Rubin said.

Heye said, ‘I’m betting on Lawler, he’s a good fit for that district. And I think there are still some divisions on the Democratic side.’

VA-07

Both Republicans and Democrats are looking at a portion of the Washington, D.C., suburbs in Virginia as a chance for victory in a district that Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., is vacating to run for governor.

The Democrat running is Eugene Vindman, the brother of Alexander Vindman, whose congressional testimony sparked the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump.

On the GOP side is Derrick Anderson, an attorney and former Special Forces Green Beret.

Spanberger won in 2017 by defeating a Tea Party Republican, and the GOP is eyeing a chance to take the seat back.

‘If I were designing, like, a prototype Democrat to run in a swing district, Spanberger is who I would design – perfect for that district, but she’s not running again. So that makes it harder for Democrats, and I know outside groups are putting money into [that race],’ said Heye.

Rubin defended Vindman, pointing out both he and Spanberger were relevant to the national security space between his military experience and her time in the FBI.

‘I think this is one where he can build off the Spanberger brand,’ he said.

MI-08

Another competitive seat will be the one being vacated by Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Mich., at the end of this year. 

The central Michigan district has grown more conservative in recent years, according to Bridge Michigan, though Biden eked out a 2% victory there over Trump in 2020.

That race is between Democratic State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet and former Trump administration appointee Paul Junge.

Heye said of the open seat there and in Virginia, ‘What I’ve been hearing for a while now… is that the open seats have become a liability for Democrats with their math in taking back the House.’

MD-06

Maryland’s 6th congressional district could be Republicans’ best pickup opportunity in an otherwise majority-blue state, with Democratic Rep. David Trone leaving at the end of this year.

April Delaney, whose husband John Delaney held the Seat from 2013 to 2017, is running on the Democratic side against Republican former state delegate Neil Parrott.

The district leans blue, but a Washington Post story on the race pointed out that it also has 141,000 unaffiliated voters who could decide the outcome.

Rubin noted he was supportive of Delaney’s bid but conceded that having popular former governor Larry Hogan on the ballot for Senate could inspire more middle-of-the-road people to vote Republican in state congressional races.

AK-At Large

Heye said he was also growing confident about Republicans’ chances in Alaska, where its lone congressional seat will be decided using ranked-choice voting.

‘In Alaska, [Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola] could win, but to do so, she’s going to have to massively over-perform,’ the GOP strategist said. ‘If we’re talking two weeks ago, I would say Republicans are split, ranked-choice voting, the Democrats win. That framework doesn’t exist anymore.’

The general election was meant to be a three-way race between Peltola, Republican Nick Begich, and Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom. 

Republicans have consolidated in recent days, however, with House GOP leadership getting behind Begich and Dahlstrom dropping out of the race.

Peltola, a moderate Democrat, is generally well-liked in the state, which voted for Trump by roughly 10 points over Biden in 2020. Those dynamics now make for what’s expected to be a close race.